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Open letter to Prime Minister
Harper on Climate Change Science
April 18, 2006
The Right Honourable Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.
Prime Minister of Canada
Ottawa, ON K1A 0A3
Dear Prime Minister:
As climate science leaders from the academic, public and
private sectors across Canada, we wish to convey our views
on the current state of knowledge of climate change and to
call upon you to provide national leadership in addressing
the issue. The scientific views we express are shared by the
vast majority of the national and international climate science
community.
We concur with the climate science assessment of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001, which has also been
supported by the Royal Society of Canada and the national
academies of science of all G-8 countries, as well as those
of China, India and Brazil. We endorse the conclusions of
the IPCC assessment that "There is new and stronger evidence
that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities" and of the 2005 Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment that "Arctic temperatures have
risen at almost twice the rate of those in the rest of the
world over the past few decades".
Climate variability and change is a global issue and the
international IPCC process for assessment of climate science,
with its rigorous scientific peer review processes, is the
appropriate mechanism for assessing what is known and not
known about climate science. Many Canadian climate scientists
are participating in the preparation of the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report which will be completed in 2007.
The following points emerge from the assessments and ongoing
research by respected Canadian and international researchers:
- There is increasingly unambiguous evidence of changing
climate in Canada and around the world.
- There will be increasing impacts of climate change on
Canada's natural ecosystems and on our socio-economic activities.
- Advances in climate science since the 2001 IPCC Assessment
have provided more evidence supporting the need for action
and development of a strategy for adaptation to projected
changes.
- Canada needs a national climate change strategy with
continued investments in research to track the rate and
nature of changes, understand what is happening, to refine
projections of changes induced by anthropogenic release
of greenhouse gases and to analyse opportunities and threats
presented by these changes.
- We have supplied justification and more detail for each
of these points in the accompanying documentation.
We urge you and your government to develop an effective national
strategy to deal with the many important aspects of climate
that will affect both Canada and the rest of the world in
the near future. We believe that sound policy requires good
scientific input.
We would be pleased to provide a scientific briefing and
further support, clarification and information at any time.
Yours sincerely:
Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the
academic,
public and private sectors across the country Full
list below
Cc: Honourable Rona Ambrose, Minister of the Environment
Honourable Gary Lunn, Minister of Natural Resources
Honourable Loyola Hearn, Minister of Fisheries and Oceans
Background and Supplementary Information
There is increasing unambiguous evidence of a changing climate
in Canada and around the world. Over the past century, the
globally-averaged annual temperature increased by 0.6°C
and the world is now warmer than at any time in at least the
last 1000 years. During the century, Canadian temperatures
south of the 60th parallel warmed by about 0.9°C. Over
the past 50 years, during which human influences on the climate
have become more obvious, Canada has warmed faster than almost
any other region on the globe, with the greatest warming -
more than 2oC - occurring in the Mackenzie Basin. With the
exception of the southern Prairies, Canada has also become
noticeably wetter. The increases in average precipitation
have been accompanied by increases in both extreme precipitation
and dryness in some regions.
Summer Arctic sea ice has decreased in extent by 30% over
the past 30 years and is projected to largely disappear by
the middle of this century. Global sea level has risen 10-20
cm in the past 100 years. Future sea level rise could be much
greater if there are massive ice sheet discharges from the
Antarctic or Greenland, as recent evidence suggests. Higher
sea-levels will enhance damage from coastal erosion and the
expected increase in storm surges.
The 2001 IPCC report projected that global mean temperatures
will increase between 1.4 to 5.8°C from 1990 to 2100.
The warming over most of Canada is projected to be substantially
above that of the global average, especially during winter.
These projections are based on global climate models from
leading climate research groups that have tested and validated
them through simulations of past and present climates.
As the climate changes, there will be increasing impacts
on Canada's natural ecosystems and on its socio-economic activities.
Some impacts are:
- Inadequate water for Prairie agriculture and hydroelectric
utilities due to increased drying of the continental interior
and reduced snow pack and shrinking glaciers;
- Threats to the sustainability of Canada's natural resources
due to an inability of our ecosystems to respond rapidly
as the climate changes.
- Warming allowing the spread of insects through our forests
and prolonged drought making forests more susceptible to
fires;
- Warming of ocean and river waters, threatening survival
of Pacific salmon, a cold water fish, by forcing it away
from its spawning grounds;
- Increasing severity and frequency of some extreme weather
events, including floods and droughts, some of which are
already exceeding 100-year records and requiring more robust
design specifications for infrastructure;
- Thawing of permafrost and associated effects on the human
environment (infrastructure, roads, pipelines, buildings),
sea ice, northern ecosystems and species, all leading to
dramatic changes in the lives of northern people;
- Increased marine traffic through the northern sea routes,
increasing the likelihood of environmental impacts and challenges
to Canada's sovereignty claims in the Arctic.
- Some of these projected impacts are already detectable.
Advances in climate science since the 2001 IPCC Assessment
have provided more evidence supporting the need for action
and development of a strategy for adaptation to projected
changes. New results include:
- Progressive decreases in Arctic Sea ice coverage in summer
and winter since 1979, with record lows in 2005. At the
current rate we expect Arctic summers to be ice-free by
2050 - a state not seen on Earth for at least a million
years;
- Analyses showing that climate may be more sensitive to
additional greenhouse gases than previously determined;
- Improved understanding of the interactions between the
climate system and the global carbon and sulphur cycle with
the possibility that some terrestrial carbon reserves may
become sources;
- Improved understanding that a small but significant fraction
(about 15-20%) of the carbon dioxide that has been released
into the atmosphere by human activities (mainly fossil fuel
burning) will continue to affect climate for tens of thousands
of years until it is eventually neutralized through carbonate
reactions in the deep ocean;
- Confirmation that warming of the atmosphere near the surface
is consistent with the projections of climate models;
- Linking of climate change and ozone recovery (affecting
ultraviolet levels in the Arctic), and the attribution of
recent surface temperature change over the Antarctic to
the ozone hole;
- Identification of ocean warming to depths in excess of
700 metres and its attribution to anthropogenic (human-induced)
causes. This stored heat will contribute to a continuing
sea level rise for several centuries;
- Clear demonstration that the ocean is becoming more acidic,
threatening marine organisms, especially corals.
- Identification of possible 'tipping points' in the carbon
cycle, the North Atlantic Ocean circulation and the Greenland
ice sheet, that may trigger irreversible trends with major
global climatic consequences;
- Evidence that warm Atlantic water now moves farther into
the Arctic Basin and may increase the rate of sea ice melt
due to warming from below.
There is an increasing urgency to act on the threat of climate
change. Stopping the growth in atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations by reducing emissions would also have benefits
for air quality, human health and energy security. But since
mitigation measures will become effective only after many
years, adaptive strategies are essential and need to begin
now.
Our climate system is dynamic and complex: further knowledge
is needed of the relationships among its components, to continue
to inform decisions on adapting to the inevitable impacts
that we will experience.
There are several key research questions whose resolution
will lead to better understanding as to how the climate will
change. For the sake of all Canadians and the global community,
Canada needs a national climate change strategy to provide
the best advice for action, with continued investments in
research to track the rate and nature of changes, understand
what is happening, to refine projections of changes induced
by anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases and to analyse
opportunities and threats presented by these changes. Good
policy requires good science.
We would be pleased to provide a scientific briefing and
further support, clarification and information at any time.
Canadian Climate Science Leaders
Dr. Philip H. Austin
Associate Professor, Earth and Ocean Sciences University of
British Columbia
Principal Investigator, NSERC/CFCAS Clouds and Climate Research
Network
Dr. David Barber Canada Research Chair in Arctic System Science
Faculty of Environment University of Manitoba.
Dr. Danny Blair
Associate Professor
PARC-MB Hydro Climate Change Research Professor Department
of Geography, University of Winnipeg
Dr. Jean-Pierre Blanchet
Professeur au Département des sciences de la Terre
et de l'atmosphère,
Institut des sciences de l'environnement,
Université du Québec à Montréal
Dr. George J. Boer
Senior Scientist, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and
Analysis
Environment Canada
Dr. James Bruce, O.C., FRSC
Canadian Policy Representative
Soil and Water Conservation Society
Dr. William Mark Buhay
Assistant Professor Department of Geography Center for Forest
Interdisciplinary Research University of Winnipeg
Dr. Ian Burton, FRSC
Professor Emeritus, University of Toronto.
Independent Scholar and Consultant.
Scientist Emeritus, Meteorological Service of Canada
Dr. Andrew B.G. Bush
Co-Editor, Atmosphere-Ocean
Dr. Alan Manson Chair, Institute of Space and Atmospheric
Studies (ISAS), Professor, Department of Physics and Engineering
Physics, University of Saskatchewan
Dr. Hank Margolis Professor
Université Laval Program Leader, Fluxnet-Canada Research
Network
Dr. Robie W. Macdonald, FRSC
Senior Research Scientist
Institute of Ocean Sciences Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Dr. Shawn Marshall Associate Professor
Department of Geography University of Calgary and
W. Garfield Weston Chair in Earth System Science, Canadian
Institute for Advanced Research
Dr. Randall Martin
Assistant Professor
Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science
Dalhousie University
Dr. J. C. McConnell, FRSC
Distinguished Research Professor,
Professor of Atmospheric Sciences
York University
Dr. Gordon McBean, FRSC
Professor, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
University of Western Ontario
Chair, Board of Trustees
The Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
Dr. Norman McFarlane Director, SPARC International Project
Office Adjunct Professor
Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Alberta
Dr. Stephen Calvert, FRSC
Professor Emeritus
Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences
University of British Columbia
Dr. E. Carmack
Senior Scientist,
Institute of Ocean Sciences
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Dr. Daniel Caya
Director, Climate Simulations
Ouranos Consortium
Montreal
Dr. Quentin Chiotti
Senior Scientist
Pollution Probe
Toronto
Dr. R Allyn Clarke
Scientist Emeritus, Bedford Institute of Oceanography
and Chair, Board of Directors, Canadian CLIVAR Research Network
Dr. Garry K.C. Clarke, FRSC
Professor of Geophysics, Earth & Ocean Sciences
University of British Columbia
Dr. Irena Creed
Assistant Professor
Department of Biology
University of Western Ontario
Dr. John J. Cullen
Killam Chair of Ocean Studies
Dalhousie University
Dr. Ken Denman, FRSC
Senior Scientist, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and
Analysis, and Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans
Canada
Dr. Jacques Derome
Professor, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
McGill University
Department of Physics, University of Toronto Scientist Emeritus
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Environment
Canada
Dr. Katrin J. Meissner
Assistant Professor
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
University of Victoria
Dr. Adam Monahan
Assistant Professor
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
University of Victoria
Dr. G.W.K. Moore
Professor of Physics and
Chair of the Department of Chemical and Physical Sciences
University of Toronto at Mississauga
Dr. Paul Myers
Associate Professor
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Alberta
Dr. Lawrence A. Mysak, CM, FRSC
Canada Steamship Lines Professor
Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
McGill University
Dr. Desmond O'Neill
Consultant
Halifax
Dr. Lionel Pandolfo
Assistant Professor Dept. of Earth & Ocean Sciences University
of British Columbia
Dr. Tim Papakyriakou
Assistant Professor
Centre for Earth Observation Science
Department of Environment & Geography
University of Manitoba
Dr. Thomas F. Pedersen, FRSC Professor
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
And
Dean of Science
Dr. Andrew E. Derocher
Professor
Department of Biological Sciences
University of Alberta
Dr. Anne de Vernal
Professor
GEOTOP UQAM-McGill
Université du Québec à Montréal
Dr. William F. Donahue
Freshwater Research Ltd.
Edmonton
Dr. Marianne Douglas
Canada Research Chair in Global Change
Associate Professor, Department of Geology
University of Toronto
Dr. James R. Drummond, FRSC
Professor, Department of Physics
University of Toronto
Dr. Thomas J. Duck
Assistant Professor
Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science
Dalhousie University
Dr. John England
Professor & NSERC Northern Chair
Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences
University of Alberta
Dr. Ian Folkins
Associate Professor)
Dept of Physics & Atmospheric Science
Dalhousie University
Dr. Louis Fortier Canada Research Chair on the response of
marine arctic ecosystem to climate change Scientific Director
of ArcticNet Université Laval
Dr. Howard J. Freeland
Senior Scientist, Institute of Ocean Sciences
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Co-Chairman of the international Argo Program.
University of Victoria
Dr. W.R. Peltier, FRSC
Director, Centre for Global Change Science
University Professor and Professor of Physics
Department of Physics
University of Toronto
Dr. Terry D. Prowse
Professor and Research Chair
Climate Impacts on Water Resources
University of Victoria
and
Research Scientist and Project Chief
Climate Impacts on Hydrology and Aquatic Ecosystems
National Water Research Institute
Environment Canada
Dr. André G. Roy
Professeur titulaire
Chaire de recherche du Canada en dynamique fluviale
Président de l'Association canadienne des géographes
Département de géographie
Université de Montréal
Dr. Nigel T. Roulet
James McGill Professor of Geography
Director, McGill School of Environment
McGill University
Dr. D. W. Schindler, O.C., F.R.S.C, F.R.S.
Killam Memorial Chair and Professor of Ecology
University of Alberta
Dr. Martin Sharp
Professor and Chair
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of
Alberta
Dr. Theodore G. Shepherd
Professor, Department of Physics
University of Toronto
Dr. John P. Smol, FRSC
Professor and Canada Research Chair in Environmental Change
Paleoecological Environmental Assessment and Research Lab
Queen's University 4
Dr. John Fyfe
Senior Scientist
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Science and Technology Branch
Environment Canada
Dr. Konrad Gajewski
Laboratory for Paleoclimatology and Climatology Department
of Geography/Département de géographie University
of Ottawa/Université d'Ottawa
Dr. Barry Goodison
Senior Scientist
Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate
Environment Canada
and
Chair, Climate and Cryosphere Project (CliC),
World Climate Research Programme
Dr. Richard J. Greatbatch,
Professor and NSERC Industrial Research Chair
Department of Oceanography
Dalhousie University
Dr. William Hsieh
Professor, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences Chair, Atmospheric
Science Programme University of British Columbia
Dr. Colin Jones
Professor and Canada Research Chair in Regional Climate Modelling
Université du Québec à Montréal
Dr. Dylan Jones
Assistant Professor
Canada Research Chair
Department of Physics
University of Toronto
Dr. Jeffrey L. Kavanaugh
Assistant Professor
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Alberta
Dr. Markus Kienast
Assistant Professor
Department of Oceanography
Dr. Ronald Stewart
Professor and NSERC/MSC/ICLR Research Chair in Severe Weather
Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
McGill University
Principal Investigator
Drought Research Initiative
CFCAS Research Network
Dr. Douw G. Steyn Professor
Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences
and
Associate Dean, Faculty of Graduate Studies The University
of British Columbia
Dr. Vincent L. St.Louis
Associate Professor
Department of Biological Sciences
University of Alberta
Dr. John M R Stone,
Adjunct Research Professor
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies
Carleton University
and
Vice-Chairman, IPCC Working Group II
Dr. Kimberly Strong,
Associate Professor
Department of Physics
University of Toronto
Dr. Gordon Swaters
Professor of Applied Mathematics University of Alberta
Dr. Peter A. Taylor
Professor and Graduate Programme Director
Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering
York University
Dr. Helmuth Thomas
Canada Research Chair in Marine Biogeochemistry
Department of Oceanography
Dalhousie University
Dr. Keith R. Thompson
5
Dalhousie University
Dr. Paul Kushner
Associate Professor
Department of Physics
University of Toronto
Dr. René Laprise
Professor
Université du Québec à Montréal
Principal Investigator, Canadian Network on Regional Climate
Modelling (CRCM)
Dr. David B Layzell, FRSC
CEO and Research Director,
BIOCAP Canada Foundation, and
Professor and Queen's Research Chair,
Queen's University,
Dr. Paul LeBlond, FRSC
Professor Emeritus
Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British
Columbia and
Chairman, Pacific Fisheries Conservation Council
Dr. Maurice Levasseur
Canadian Research Chair on Climate Variability and Planktonic
Systems
Laval University
Director of Québec-Océan
Chair of the Canadian Network on Surface Ocean - Lower Atmosphere
Study (SOLAS)
Dr. Marlon R. Lewis
Professor, Department of Oceanography
Dalhousie University
Dr. Charles Lin
Professor
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
McGill University
Dr. Edward Lozowski
Professor Emeritus
Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Alberta
Dr. Brian H. Luckman,
Professor, Department of Geography
The University of Western Ontario
Canada Research Chair
Departments of Oceanography and
Mathematics and Statistics
Dalhousie University
Dr. Peter Victor
Professor, Faculty of Environmental Studies
York University
President, Royal Canadian Institute for the Advancement of
Science
Dr. Warwick F. Vincent, FRSC, FRSNZ
Professeur & Chaire de Recherche du Canada Dépt
de Biologie & Centre d'Études Nordiques Université
Laval,
Dr. Claudia Wagner-Riddle
Associate Professor
Dept. Land Resource Science
University of Guelph
Dr. William Ward
Professor,
Department of Physics,
University of New Brunswick
Dr. Andrew J. Weaver, FRSC
Professor and Canada Research Chair
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
University of Victoria
Dr. Elaine Wheaton
Research Scientist/ Climatologist
Saskatchewan Research Council
Dr. Douglas Whelpdale, FRSC
Director, Climate Research Division
Science and Technology Branch
Environment Canada
Dr. Alexander P. Wolfe
Associate Professor
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of
Alberta
Dr. Francis Zwiers, FRSC
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Science and Technology Branch
Environment Canada
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