Zero-Carbon Transport by 2030

Could we travel from Victoria to Nelson without oil? Ship our goods to Prince George without oil?

These are questions that the BCSEA is very exercised with, as we work to build a clear vision of life in the future that needs no fossil fuels.

Why? Because we’re rapidly approaching the end of the Age of Fossil Fuels. We are living at the top of this tiny slice of time, looking down at the rapidly advancing descent:

For a million years, we gathered our solar energy from firewood. Then we discovered fossil fuels - the scrunched up blackened remains of 300 million years old ancient trees and sea creatures. It’s still solar energy - a gift left by our ancient plant ancestors - but from here on in, we’re going to have to drill deeper, scrape harder, and cut ever more environmental corners to squeeze it out of the ground.

The climate emergency is telling us to wake up. The looming arrival of peak oil is telling us to wake up. The Gulf oil spill is telling us to wake up. We must transform our methods of transportation so that we no longer need oil to get where we’re going.

If we get it right, we’ll look back and say, “That was easy - what was all the fuss about?” But if we get it wrong, if we delay, deny, and denigrate the solutions being proposed, we’ll look back and say, “That was awful. If only we’d paid attention in 2010 when we still had the luxury of time.”

So how will we travel and transport goods in 2030, when we have left the Age of Fossil Fuels?

Firstly, we’ll enjoy walking far more than we do today, because local councils will have created walking trails that are a pleasure to use, punctuated with art, sculpture, allotment gardens, trees, and resting benches.

Secondly, we’ll enjoy cycling far more than we do today, because our communities and regional districts will have built the most amazing cycling networks, with many more safe trails and bike lanes. We will also have discovered the delight of the electric bike, that can run 50 kilometres on its lithium battery for only a few pennies, and we’ll all be healthier and happier for doing so. In Copenhagen, 37% of all commuters already choose the bike - and their goal is 50% by 2015.

Thirdly, our transit service will be amazing, with comfortable, reliable buses that can take you where you need to go for a very minimal charge - the rest being paid for on our city taxes. People will point their I-Phones or I-Pads at the nearest bus stop, and see immediately when the next bus is coming. We’ll have equally loved Light Rapid Transit services connecting the downtowns with the suburbs, enabling more people to leave their cars at home.

We’ll also have many more coaches, enabling us to travel around in comfort and ease, with tables, legroom, and plug-ins for laptops.

Across North America there will be far more trains, including long distance high-speed trains, but BC is something of a special case, because of its mountains. The line from Vancouver to Whistler or the E&N Railway on Vancouver Island may always be too slow and windy to serve more than the tourist market. Across southern BC, on the other hand, we should hope to see much greater use of the tracks, all of which can be electrified.

There will still be cars - but almost all will be electric or hybrid electric, drawing power from BC’s abundance of green power, recharging either at home or at quick-charge power stations, just as we do for gas today.

But what if the electric cars are expensive, just as the falling supply of oil will be expensive - what will people do who can neither afford the fuel for a regular car or the price of an electric car?

The solution is as easy as a phone call. By embracing ridesharing, we can reduce the price of fuel fourfold. By embracing carsharing, we can reduce the cost of car-ownership. Victoria and Vancouver have successful car-share coops, but ridesharing is stuck on Craigslist alongside “strictly platonic” and “casual encounters”. They’ve cracked the problem in Britain, where liftShare.com - the world’s best rideshare system, created by a six Bristol University students - has almost 400,000 members. Hands up some young people with the technological and business savvy to bring liftShare to BC?

What about trucks that can’t run on electric power because of the distance they travel? And what about ships, ferries and airplanes - how will they get around without oil? The crystal ball is less clear here, but it’s looking increasingly as if they may use biofuel made from algae, or from fast-growing woody coppiced crops grown especially for the purpose.

If it’s the latter, it will need land. Today, half our farmland and all our pastureland is used to raise animals and feedstuffs for animals - and that’s a choice we make, knowing that a diet heavy in meat and dairy causes more illness, more cancer, and an earlier death. The future may offer us a choice between cheap meat and cheap travel - but not both. If people chose a more vegetarian diet, there will be plenty of farmland to grow the biofuels for long-distance travel.

Hydrogen may yet be the solution, generated by passing green electricity through water, but it requires three times more energy per kilometre than an electric vehicle, so the jury’s still out on its viability.

When new communities and neighbourhoods are built, they will be designed as whole communities where people can move around by foot, bike or transit, without need for a car, and with their own urban farmland, green spaces, and neighbourhood centres. They will be hot properties, as people appreciate the benefits of a complete community, in contrast to a one-dimensional car-dominated suburb.

How will we get there? A clear vision makes it easier, but there are still major gulfs, mountains and barriers that stand in the way.

We have various local cycling groups (BEST; the Greater Victoria Cycling Coalition); and we have the Victoria and Vancouver Car Share Coops. We also have the Livable Regions Coalition, whose members are trying to stop the 20th century “more roads and bridges” Gateway Project. All these groups need members, and offer opportunities for voluntary engagement.

What all our communities lack are local green transport societies with committed people who have a good knowledge of the solutions, and can get things done. This is an open opportunity, a golden staircase waiting for people to ascend it.

Is this a space that the BCSEA’s regional Chapters might fill? It’s certainly a possibility if people want to step forward. The vision is clear, and in Vancouver and Victoria there is also strong municipal leadership. What’s lacking is any clear provincial leadership.

The vision is clear, and the need is pressing. Now we must step forward and make it happen.

Guy Dauncey
President, BCSEA